Trends to Watch

Talking Tariffs

We’ve launched the Flexport Tariff Refund Calculator, a critical new tool that enables businesses to scenario-plan ahead of the U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the Trump administration’s International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs. Instantly calculate total duties that are potentially eligible for refunds, break them down by duty category, and quickly understand your potential return if the Supreme Court orders refunds.

• President Trump Walks Back Proposed Tariffs Related to Greenland: On January 21, President Trump announced that he and the Secretary General of NATO had agreed upon a “framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland and the entire Arctic region.” As a result, President Trump no longer intends to impose a 10% tariff on eight European trading partners on February 1, a duty he had previously announced in response to a perceived lack of cooperation in the U.S.’s quest to purchase Greenland.
  • Hours before President Trump walked back plans to impose the 10% tariff, the European Parliament suspended its approval of the trade agreement that the U.S. and the EU had struck last summer. While the U.S. implemented the provision stipulating a minimum total tariff of 15% on EU goods last August, other provisions of the trade agreement have yet to take effect. EU lawmakers are due to meet again later today.
  • Additionally, the suspension of EU countermeasures against the U.S. is set to expire on February 6, 2026. If the EU does not extend the suspension, the EU could soon reintroduce retaliatory tariffs on €93 billion (about $109 billion)’s worth of U.S. goods.
• IEEPA Tariff Case: As of now, the next possible date for a U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the Trump administration’s IEEPA tariffs is February 20, 2026. The justices are set to commence a four-week recess next week.
  • If the Supreme Court rules against the IEEPA tariffs, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) would likely stop collecting tariff revenue immediately while implementing a refund process. However, it is unclear how much discretion the Supreme Court order would give CBP in how it can issue refunds, or if the justices would first determine which importers are eligible for refunds. Meanwhile, the Trump administration could potentially leverage other statutes—including Sections 301, 232, and 338—to re-implement its tariffs or introduce new ones.
  • If the Supreme Court upholds the tariffs, on the other hand, the case could return to the lower courts for another review. Another broad possibility is a ruling that provides partial relief: for example, the Court could uphold some IEEPA tariffs while striking down others.
  • Check out our live blog for the latest developments.
• A Steep Potential Tariff on French Wines: On January 19, President Trump announced that he may impose a 200% tariff on French wine and champagne if France does not join his recently launched Board of Peace, an organization meant to “secure enduring peace in areas affected or threatened by conflict.” It remains unclear when President Trump intends to implement the potential duty.
• CBP to Transition to Electronic Refunds Early Next Month: On February 6, 2026, CBP will begin issuing all refunds electronically. CBP will no longer issue checks for refunds, except in limited circumstances.
  • To receive electronic refunds from CBP, importers must have an Automated Commercial Environment (ACE) Portal account. Those who already have ACE Portal access can add and manage their Automated Clearing House (ACH) refund information within their account.
  • To avoid delayed refunds, importers should confirm ACE Portal access and start the electronic refund enrollment process today. For guidance on applying for an ACE Portal account and setting up electronic refunds, visit our blog.
• Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) eFiling Mandate: On July 8, 2026, the CPSC will implement electronic filing requirements for CPSC-regulated consumer products at the time of entry. For CPSC-regulated products imported into a foreign trade zone, the eFiling requirement will take effect on January 8, 2027. Impacted businesses will face new compliance requirements, filing procedures, and potential penalties.
  • Importers are advised to start the registration process on the CPSC eFiling portal, which is currently in the voluntary stage, as soon as possible. Flexport is actively testing eFiling with our customers who have Business Accounts set up in the CPSC’s portal. Learn more on our blog.
• Other Recent Developments:
  • On January 15, the U.S. and Taiwan reached a trade agreement that will reduce the U.S.’s reciprocal tariff rate on Taiwan from 20% to no more than 15%. The deal will also impose a 15% cap on U.S. Section 232 duties on Taiwanese auto parts, timber, lumber, and wood derivative products. Additionally, Taiwanese businesses building new U.S. semiconductor capacity may import up to 2.5 times that planned capacity without paying Section 232 duties, with a lower preferential rate for above-quota imports. Meanwhile, Taiwanese businesses that complete new chip production projects in the U.S. will be able to import 1.5 times their new U.S. production capacity without paying Section 232 duties.
  • President Trump signed a proclamation last week imposing a 25% tariff on certain advanced computing chips, including the NVIDIA H200 and AMD MI325X, effective January 15. The order is limited in scope and contains multiple exclusions: semiconductors imported for use in U.S. data centers, repairs or replacements performed in the U.S., research and development in the U.S., and certain other domestic use cases are exempt from the new tariff.
  • Following the conclusion of a Section 232 probe into critical mineral imports, President Trump signed a proclamation that establishes the groundwork for ensuring adequate U.S. access to critical minerals. If the U.S. and other nations do not reach “satisfactory agreements” on securing critical mineral supplies, President Trump may consider imposing tariffs and other measures.
  • President Trump announced earlier this month that he plans to impose a 25% tariff on any country “doing business” with Iran, though he has not issued an executive order or Federal Register notice concerning the potential duty. Iran’s largest trading partner is China: in 2024, Iran imported about $17.8 billion in Chinese goods, while Iranian exports to China totaled $14.6 billion. China is also the biggest purchaser of Iranian oil, importing more than 80% of Iran’s shipped oil in 2025.

Calculate your tariff and landed cost impacts in real time with the Flexport Tariff Simulator.

Ocean

TRANS-PACIFIC EASTBOUND (TPEB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • January capacity remains relatively high, estimated at 80-85%. Capacity is projected to see a slight uptick to 90% in the first half of February.
  • A blank sailing period related to Lunar New Year capacity adjustments is expected to start in the second half of February and continue through the first week of March.
  • Volumes have remained steady since the December holiday season. This year’s pre-Lunar-New-Year rush—which has been pushed ahead by 3 to 4 weeks—has been “spread out,” partially due to the late holiday this year, in contrast to the sharp volume spikes seen in previous years. As of now, we have not seen a further uptick in volumes.
  • Space is generally open across most gateways.
• Freight Rates:
  • Some carriers have withdrawn the January 15 General Rate Increase (GRI), while others are mitigating rates. Additionally, some carriers have also withdrawn and extended rates until February due to soft volumes.
  • Carriers have confirmed and pushed Peak Season Surcharges (PSSs) to March. With Lunar New Year just over three weeks away, these actions indicate a lack of “peak pressure” in the current market.

FAR EAST WESTBOUND (FEWB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Carriers have responded to the compressed pre-holiday peak by deploying a record 1.15 million TEUs of capacity for January, nearly 50% higher than pre-pandemic historical baselines. Despite this injection, blank sailings remain remarkably low, with carriers removing only approximately 5% of planned departures for the month.
  • Planned monthly capacity is projected to drop from 1.15 million TEUs in January to just over 1 million TEUs in February.
  • Carriers have confirmed aggressive blank sailing schedules for Weeks 8 and 9 to manage the post-holiday demand gap and support rate stability during the upcoming contract negotiation window.
• Operations in Northern Europe: Currently, port operations are severely compromised by extreme winter weather and high yard occupation.
  • In Hamburg, terminal truck handling capacity has plummeted due to severe winter weather. The average vessel wait time now stands at 1.65 days.
  • Yard utilization at major terminals in Hamburg and Rotterdam is reaching critical thresholds of 80% to 95%. Rotterdam is reporting vessel delays of up to 48 hours.
  • Rail operations are experiencing a systemic backlog. As of Week 3, 21 METRANS trains remain stationary en route to Hamburg due to frozen traction lines and track issues.
• Equipment:
  • In Week 4, 40’ HC container availability has been officially reported as "tight" in major hubs like Shanghai and Ningbo. Shippers are advised to secure equipment immediately to ensure departure before the holiday.
• Freight Rates:
  • The market is currently entering a pre-holiday transition phase ahead of the final booking window before Lunar New Year on February 17.
  • The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index Index (SCFI) fell $44/TEU to $1,676 in Week 3, signaling a cooling of immediate spot demand as the holiday cut-off nears.
  • While carriers initially aimed for significant rate restorations earlier in the month, actual market levels for the second half of January have seen more cautious development. Some carriers have extended or adjusted their Freight All Kinds (FAK) levels to consolidate volumes before the production shutdown. Consequently, the aggressive pricing power seen at the start of the year has softened, with executable rates consolidating at a stable range.
  • Despite softening base rates, carriers continue to move forward with mandatory environmental and fuel surcharges, which remain key components of the total cost structure for 2026.

TRANS-ATLANTIC WESTBOUND (TAWB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • North Europe and West Mediterranean: Demand has picked up as of mid-January, but volumes remain below peak levels amid congestion and blanks.
  • East Mediterranean: Demand is strong, with some batching problems at transshipment ports.
• Equipment:
  • Critical container and chassis shortages persist, especially in Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Southern and Eastern Germany, and Portugal.
• Freight Rates:
  • Rates are stable across North Europe, the East Mediterranean, and the West Mediterranean.
  • CMA CGM has announced February Peak Season Surcharges (PSSs) and Rate Restoration Initiatives (RRIs) from Turkey and North Europe to the U.S. East Coast and Canada. Other carriers have not announced any new fees.

INDIAN SUBCONTINENT TO NORTH AMERICA

• Capacity and Demand:
  • To the U.S. East Coast: Space is generally available on base-port-to-base-port lanes. In the last week, both CMA CGM (INDAMEX) and Maersk (MECL) have sent vessels through the Suez on their India-to-U.S. and U.S.-to-India service strings. CMA CGM and Maersk have both announced that their respective services are returning to Suez routings for each sailing.
  • To the U.S. West Coast: January capacity remains available, given supply dynamics on the TPEB into the U.S. West Coast.
• Freight Rates:
  • To the U.S. East Coast: Rates are holding steady into the second half of January. If the market continues to see increased booking numbers, market rates may increase.
  • To the U.S. West Coast: Rate levels remain low, with possible increases if demand from India steadies.

Air

• North China:
  • The Trans-Pacific Eastbound market is showing signs of recovery this week as demand gradually begins to pick up. General cargo activity is leading the rebound with increased booking volumes, while the ecommerce sector is undergoing a slower recovery.
  • This modest improvement in demand has pushed pricing higher, following recent yearly lows.
• South China:
  • As January draws to a close, the market is seeing positive demand momentum that is expected to continue. This trend is driven by ecommerce procurement placements and an increase in project cargo inquiries.
  • Heavy snow issues in Europe are easing, leading to more stable flight operations and pricing on eastbound lanes.
  • Trans-Pacific Eastbound pricing remains steady, but is expected to increase in the coming weeks.
• Taiwan:
  • The Trans-Pacific market continues to mirror previous conditions, but is expected to see a surge in volume starting this week.
  • Pricing for European destinations has begun to increase, and space remains tight due to weather-related disruptions.
• Vietnam:
  • Out of Hanoi (HAN) airport, a persistent lack of demand has led to further price reductions, particularly for routes heading to North America. This trend is largely driven by a highly competitive environment where providers are lowering costs to attract limited volume.
  • The market in the Ho Chi Minh City (SGN) region remains much more resilient, with consistent demand levels and steady pricing. No significant fluctuations have been reported this week.
• South Korea:
  • Market conditions remain stable and manageable, mirroring previous performance. Freight pricing and capacity levels show no significant fluctuations and remain consistent with the prior period.
• Malaysia:
  • Pricing for Trans-Pacific lanes is currently stable, with capacity available to most destinations.
  • Meanwhile, congestion persists at several European gateways, primarily due to weather-related cancellations and aircraft payload restrictions. Shippers are advised to book in advance on European lanes.
• Thailand:
  • Local demand remains generally soft, leaving capacity open and manageable across major trade lanes. Volumes are expected to increase starting this week.
  • Shippers are encouraged to book in advance to secure space.
• Indonesia:
  • Currently, capacity is slightly constrained due to increased local demand, though space availability is anticipated to improve after this week.
  • Major European gateways continue to experience congestion due to ongoing weather-related flight cancellations and payload restrictions. Shippers should plan for extended lead times to secure space.
• Indian Subcontinent:
  • The impasse in trade negotiations between India and the United States has impacted activity in the region. High duties have led to recent shipment cancellations.
  • Apart from these challenges, demand from Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan has stabilized.
  • Capacity is available for European routes. Meanwhile, the Trans-Pacific sector is seeing some constraints: pricing in the region has stopped declining, and shippers should secure bookings with sufficient lead time to ensure space.

(Source: Flexport)

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

Webinars

Flexport Customs Webinar: Preparing for CPSC’s eFiling Deadline

Tuesday, January 27 @ 9:00am PT / 12:00pm ET

Navigating the 2026 RFP Season: A Beginner’s Guide to a Successful RFP

Wednesday, January 28 @ 10:00am PT / 1:00pm ET

Ocean Timeliness Indicator

Transit time decreased from China to the U.S. East Coast and China to North Europe, and remained stable from China to the U.S. West Coast.

Week to January 19, 2026

Transit time remained stable at 33 days from China to the U.S. West Coast; decreased from 55.4 to 52.4 days from China to the U.S. East Coast; and decreased slightly from 60 to 59.6 days from China to North Europe.

See the full report and read about our methodology here.